Fresh concerns over a possible increase in petrol prices have emerged following a rise in global crude oil prices to $106.80 per barrel, amid renewed attacks in the Middle East and fears of disruptions to global oil supplies.
The development has cast uncertainty over the sustainability of the Federal Government’s 30-day petrol discount, even as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) extends the relief until October 31, 2026.
Under the arrangement, eligible customers who pay through the NNPCL mobile application receive a N66-per-litre discount, reducing the pump price from N1,405 to N1,339 per litre.
However, a sustained rise in international crude oil prices could put additional pressure on domestic petrol prices, given the sensitivity of imported petroleum products and locally refined fuel to prevailing market conditions.
Data from Oilprice.com showed that Brent crude futures rose by $2.09, representing a two per cent increase, to $106.80 per barrel. United States West Texas Intermediate crude also gained $1.93, or 2.10 per cent, to reach $93.78 per barrel.
The price rally comes amid renewed security concerns in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global oil shipments.
Meanwhile, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has significantly reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 400,000 barrels per day, from the 1.4 million barrels per day projected at the beginning of the year.
OPEC Secretary-General, Haitham Al Ghais, disclosed the revised outlook during a ministerial session on global oil and gas markets at the 25th World Energy Congress in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
The adjustment reflects slower-than-anticipated demand growth and changing market conditions, with potential implications for oil-producing countries’ production plans, investment decisions and energy security.
For Nigeria, the developments come as the country continues to work towards meeting its crude oil production targets and revenue projections for the 2026 fiscal year.
The Federal Government’s 2026 budget was based on a crude oil price benchmark of 64.85 dollars per barrel and a production assumption of about 1.84 million barrels per day, while setting a production target of 2.06 million barrels per day.
However, data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission indicate that Nigeria produced approximately 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day in August 2026, excluding condensates. Combined crude oil and condensate output stood at about 1.678 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, has called on governments to adopt predictable policies and honour investment agreements to sustain capital flows into the energy sector amid changing global market conditions.
The latest developments have renewed concerns over the outlook for domestic petrol prices, with consumers watching closely to see whether the government’s discount scheme can provide sustained relief amid rising international oil prices and uncertainties in global supply.
